Trump foreign policy guidelines for Venezuela

There is concern in Venezuela about Donald Trump falling as prey of Nicolas Maduro offering to dialogue. It has been reported that Donald Trump, privately during his previous administration, admired Maduro because of his resilience. We know that Donald Trump is able to dialogue with dictators such as Putin or the North Korean dictator. The issue here is that dialogue has already been made, through the process that ensured recent Venezuelan elections, in which Edmundo González Urrutia was voted as President elect, while Nicolás Maduro lost and stole the election. It is very important for Donald Trump to follow the advice of his advisers, including Rick Scott, Marco Rubio, Ivan Simonovis, Elon Musk and Erik Prince, all of which have been sufficiently vocal about Venezuelan foreign policy during the term of current Joe Biden's Administration, while Donald Trump has been more focused on United States domestic issues, and on foreign issues concerning wars in Eurasia.

It is significant that Javier Milei, president of Argentina, will come to Mar-a-Lago next week to speak to cabinet members of Donald Trump's Administration. I would also urge Donald Trump to listen to Javier Milei concerning foreign policy on Venezuela. Javier Milei's foreign policy towards Venezuela is adequate, and it is recommended that Donald Trump relies a lot on Javier Milei and Nayib Bukele for a thorough assessment of relations with other Latin American countries. To the credit of president elect Donald Trump, this new administration seems to be more collegiate than the first one. The first Donald Trump Administration was chaotic: it seemed unorganized and that was the reason why many first time Trump voters momentarily abandoned him in 2020 to vote for Joe Biden. 

The alternative was worse and presidency came back into Donald Trump. It is important for Donald Trump to recognize that this second term can be much better than the first term. It is important to remember what went wrong, so that it's not repeated in the case of foreign policy towards Venezuela. The mistake was primarily on the Venezuelan side, because Juan Guidó did not authorize use of Treaty of Interamerican reciprocal assistance, which is conducted by the OAS Organization of American States. Neither did Juan Guaidó ask for application of Responsibility to Protect R2P, which is a security program for assistance to troubled countries administered by the United Nations. During the month of May 2019 many Venezuelans went to a street protest, to which Juan Guaidó attended. We showed him big signs and posters asking for implementation of TIAR and R2P so that the Organization of American States to which the United States is member, and the United Nations could take notice.

Juan Guaidó refused, so while Mike Pompeo and John Bolton wanted military intervention in Venezuela, such was not possible because the Venezuelan legitimate authorities, represented by interim president Juan Guaidó did not ask for it. Donald Trump would not like to have either John Bolton or Mike Pompeo on his team again, and the decision is probably right because Donald Trump acted well in his first term: he was not authorized by the Venezuelans to intervene militarily at that time. It is a good decision for Donald Trump not to use again John Bolton or Mike Pompeo in his new administration, because this contention Donald Trump exerted towards Venezuela, which ultimately led to the failure of Juan Guaidó's interim government. Containment was the only policy Donald Trump could pursue, as it was in coordination with National Assembly authorities of Venezuela, represented by Juan Guaidó and his Board of cabinet members who went into embassies worldwide. 

The interim government of Venezuela was dismantled shortly after, because it did not fulfill its job. It was not Trump's fault. Now we are four years later in a completely different situation. Venezuela has a president elect with a majority of popular vote. If in Venezuela we had the electoral college system, the whole country would have been painted blue. Remember that in Venezuela blue is the color for capitalist political parties, and red is the color for communist political parties, so when we are comparing colors of political parties in Venezuela and the United States please remind that they are switched: in the United States capitalist political parties are represented with a red color and communist political parties in the United States are represented with blue. Should we have an electoral college map in Venezuela, the whole country would have been painted in blue because all states won a majority popular vote in favor of Edmundo González Urrutia. 

Nicolás Maduro lost his election everywhere, and that is the reason why official results have not been presented by the National Electoral Council authorities; however, such results are widely available on a website administered by the Venezuelan opposition. Furthermore, there is wide Venezuelan support to the activities of Ya Casi Venezuela, led by Donald Trump's ally Erik Prince, who has been collecting funds for achieving the goal of entering Venezuela, with technological and military assistance, in order to extract Nicolas Maduro, Diosdado Cabello, Vladimir Padrino López, Jorge Rodriguez, Delcy Rodríguez and Tarek William Saab from power. As a resident of Venezuela with personal contacts with late supporters of the chavismo regime, my understanding is that even they are aware that they lost the election, and that the opposition should probably be given a chance to govern; however they know very well the kind of government they have been supporting. They know the only way Maduro and Diosdado will accept to leave is by brute force. 

That means Venezuela needs foreign intervention. It would be awesome if such intervention comes orderly through the channels of the Organization of American States and the United Nations. That is why in the Organisation of American States there has been debate of the best means to implement the Treaty of Interamerican Reciprocal Assistance. It will be wise that Edmundo González Urrutia, once he is sworn in as constitutional president of Venezuela on January 10th, requests the OAS to implement TIAR. It is also important to initiate discussions at the United Nations about the possibility of implementing R2P Responsibility to Protect, for the case of Venezuela. In this sense it will be quite useful that good relations held by Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin discuss how the Venezuelan geopolitical implications could be solved, through the use of responsibility to protect, which is a mechanism that both United States and Soviet Union then Russia agreed to have available for cases requiring such military assistance.

While President elect of Venezuela Edmundo González Urrutia is currently on a European tour, and has extensively spoken to diplomats in Spain and Italy, he will eventually arrive into the United States. It is very important that he is granted admission to speaking opportunities at the United States Senate, at the United States House of Representatives, and with President elect Donald J. Trump; however, since that moment may take a few more weeks to happen, it is important for Donald Trump to rely on his friends Javier Milei and Bukele to scratch Venezuelan foreign policy, coordinated between these three leading countries of North America, Central America and South America.

The conclusion is that the United States government represented by Donald J Trump has ample intervention options on the table, which may be used rather than falling again onto treacherous dialogue offered by Nicolás Maduro. Nicolás Maduro is illegitimate and he may only remain in power until January 10th. It is interesting that Maduro's term expires on January 10th: on that day the constitutional president will be Edmundo González Urrutia, and 10 days later Joe Biden's term will end and Donald Trump will be president, Commander in Chief of the United States. So we still have two months of transition left, and the next few weeks will be crucial in determining how foreign relations between the United States and Venezuela will develop. If successful, we might be looking at ways to liberate Cuba, Bolivia and Nicaragua from their current dictatorships as well.