Oil production beyond sanctions

China, Venezuela's largest oil buyer, imported 428,000 barrels per day in April 2025, seeking to expand its influence post Chevron. As reported by Venezuela analysis on May 15th, 2025, China has historically supported Venezuela through loans and investments, securing oil supplies at discounted rates, and strengthening bilateral ties. Vice President Delcy Rodriguez met CNPC executives in May 2025 to discuss new investments, signaling China's intent to play a more active role. With Chevron's exit, China could manage joint ventures, leveraging its experience in navigating sanctions to secure a stable oil supply. China's potential to fill Chevron's void is supported by its economic leverage and sanctions evasion expertise, as noted by the Atlantic Council on January 23rd, 2025

Shadow tanker fleets and gray market channels allow China to bypass United States restrictions, ensuring continued access to Venezuelan crude. Challenges include United States secondary tariffs of 25% levy March 2025, and global market dynamics with OPEC unwinding cuts, per the information energy administration. Despite these hostilities, China's demand for discounted oil and strategic interests make it a likely candidate for operational expansion.

Geopolitically, China's growing role enhances its influence in Latin America, countering United States interests. Securing Venezuelan oil aligns with Venezuela's energy security goals, as it diversifies supply sources. This shift strengthens China's position in global oil markets, reshaping regional power dynamics. Compared to Russia and Iran, China is better positioned: due to its economic strength and capacity to absorb large oil volumes.

Russia's focus on Ukraine and Iran's sanctions limit the roles, making China the most profitable to fill the operational vacuum led by Chevron. Russia has historical ties with Venezuela, with Rosneft building minority states in Pdvsa ventures: adding sanctions evasion since the 2000s as noted by the Atlantic Council. The partnership has helped Venezuela redirect oil exports to Asia, during past United States sanctions. Russia could expand in other sectors by taking over operations, or providing technical support: leveraging to experience in sanctioned environments. Rosneft's prior involvement in Venezuela, including managing joint ventures, positions it to potentially fill some of the operational gaps left by Chevron.

Russia's current role is limited by its focus on the Ukraine conflict and its sanctions, reducing its capacity for significant operational involvement. United States sanctions on both nations further complicates direct investments, forcing Russia to rely on intermediaries, to engage with Venezuela's oil sector. Competition with China for Asian markets, as highlighted by the internal energy administration, constrains Russia's role. Both nations target China for oil exports, but China's economic leverage gives it an edge.

Russia's logistical difficulties under sanctions also hinder the ability to expand operations in Venezuela. Geopolitically, Russia's involvement strengthens ties with allied regions, countering United States influence in Latin America. Access to Venezuelan oil provides strategic advantages, enhancing Russia's global energy presence. However, its commitments elsewhere limits the extent of its engagement in Venezuela's oil industry. Russia's role remains secondary to China's, with Iran's involvement also limited by sanctions.

While Russia can offer technical support and sanctions evasion expertise, its operational expansion is unlikely to match China's, given its current priorities and the competitive dynamics of the global oil market. Iran has supplied diluent to Venezuela, providing 35 million barrels of condensate from 2021 to 2023: critical for exporting heavy crude, as reported by oilprice.com on March 19th 2025. This support enables PDVSA to dilute its extra heavy oil, ensuring it can be transported and sold internationally.

Iran facilitates clandestine trade through shadow tanker fleets, strengthening ties with PDVSA, as noted by the Atlantic Council. These fleets help Venezuela evade United States sanctions, recounting crude to markets like China. Iran's expertise in sanctions evasion, homed by its own experience enhances this partnership. Iran could deepen its involvement by providing technical support or expanding logistics assistance. Its experience in heavy crude processing could help Pdvsa improve refining capabilities, potentially mitigating some of the production challenges faced after losing Chevron's expertise. Iran's own sanctions and competition with Venezuela for Chinese markets limit its operational role, as per Reuters on July 19th, 2022. Both nations compete for discounted oil sales to China. Iran's domestic priorities and regional conflicts constrain its ability to invest heavily in Venezuela.

Geopolitically, Iran's involvement strengthens cooperation between sanctioned nations, creating a block resistant to Western pressure. This partnership risks further international isolation but provides mutual economic benefits: ensuring both countries can sustain oil exports despite United States sanctions and global market challenges. Compared to China and Russia, Iran's role is supportive, focusing on logistics and diluent supply rather than direct operations. China's economic strength and Russia's historical ties give an edge. While Iran's contributions remain critical but secondary in Venezuela's post Chevron oil landscape. United States sanctions have pushed Venezuela toward China, Russia, and Iran, seeding influence to these adversaries as warranted by the Atlantic Council.

From 2018 to 2022, sanctions benefited China's refiners, Iran's trade, and Russia's investments, reshaping Venezuela's geopolitical alliances. Chevron's CEO Mike Worth in a Fox Business report on May 4th, 2025 cautioned that China, Russia, and Iran could fill the vacuum left by Chevron's exit. This shift enhances the regional influence, countering United States interests and strengthening their foothold in Latin America's oil sector. The economic decline from reduced oil exports, has deepened Venezuela's reliance on non-western partners. China's imports of 428,000 barrels per day and Iran's diluent supply highlights the trend. Sanctions have inadvertently created opportunities for these nations to expand, challenging United States dominance in the region. security concerns: such as the government's claim of thwarting 60 attacks on oil facilities are seen as propaganda. Social media posts label these claims as a pretext for repression, arguing that the government exploits the crisis to maintain power.

Public frustration underscores the geopolitical state. The opposition's disunity with abstentionists, who are called virtual terrorists, weakens resistance to the government: allowing non-western powers to gain influence without significant domestic opposition. The geopolitical implications highlight the unintended consequences of United States sanctions, which have not only failed to dislodge Maduro, but have also strengthened United States adversaries. This shift poses long-term challenges for United States foreign policy in Latin America.

As Venezuela's oil industry becomes a battleground for global influence, abstentionists are labeled as virtual terrorists for boycotting elections, reflecting deep divisions within Venezuela's opposition. This boycott aimed at denying the government's legitimacy, preventing the opposition from occupying seats in the national assembly and governorships. Veppex, a diaspora organization, criticized opposition leaders like Manuel Rosales for negotiating with the government. These negotiations are viewed as legitimizing a government responsible for over 300 political prisoners and 150,000 deaths, undermining the opposition's moral stance. The call for a unified opposition by Veppex highlights the government's human rights abuses, including torture and disappearances. The diaspora's push for unity aims to strengthen resistance against the Venezuelan government, but internal divisions between abstentionists and participationists hinder a cohesive strategy to challenge the government.

Proposals to resume debates on revoking the nationality of exiles boycotting elections, show extreme measures against dissent. This reflects the government's influence over political discourse exploiting opposition disunity to propose punitive actions that further alienate the diaspora. María Machado is blamed for the socialist landslide. She is accused of deliberately destroying opposition unity. Her actions, seen as divisive, have weakened the opposition's ability to counter the government, allowing socialists to gain ground in recent elections.

Political tensions exacerbate economic challenges, with the opposition unable to address the crisis following Chevron's exit. The government exploits these divisions: using repression and propaganda to maintain power while the opposition's disunity leaves Venezuelans without effective representation or solutions. Diosdado Cabello's claim of thwarting 60 attacks on oil facilities in 2025, aims to portray the government as a protector of national interests. This narrative suggests external threats to justify heightened security measures, and maintain control over the oil sector. These claims are labeled as propaganda by the opposition: arguing the government uses fabricated threats to justify repression. The lack of evidence for these attacks fuels skepticism, with many believing the narrative targets opposition leaders to criminalize dissent.

The government focus on security threats, real or fabricated, targets figures like Juan Pablo Guanipa. Accusations of forging Guanipa's handwriting to stage a setup, reflect the government's tactics to discredit opposition voices: intensifying political repression. This narrative distracts from economic failures, as oil exports dropped 20% in April 2025: following Chevron's exit by framing opposition as responsible for attacks. The government shifts blame for declining production, avoiding accountability for mismanagement, and the impact of United States sanctions on the oil industry. Public skepticism highlights distrust in the government's motives. Claims of security threats are probably a lie to justify repression, reflecting a broader sentiment that the government exploits the crisis to maintain power, further eroding its legitimacy among Venezuelans. Propaganda tactics underscore the government's efforts to cling to power, amid economical and political crisis by leveraging security concerns.

Nicolaás Maduro diverts attention from the oil sector's decline. But growing public discontent and opposition criticism suggest these strategies may not sustain the government's grip long term. We advocate for Latin American integration to eliminate borders, fostering a regional sphere of influence. This vision seeks to unite nations like Venezuela, Guyana, and the rest of the Caribbean countering the dominance of large territorial powers, through collective economic and political strength. Historical disputes with Cuba and Guyana have motivated Venezuelans to learn about these sister cultures.

The Guayana Esequiba conflict escalated with attacks on Guyana patrols on May 15, 2025: highlighting tensions, but also potential for dialogue and cultural exchange to foster unity. Integration is seen as a counter to large powers like the United States with Venezuela's oil industry challenges, underscoring the need for regional support. Collaborative efforts could stabilize economies, share resources, and address crises like Venezuela's. It emphasizes political divisions within the region, posing significant barriers to achieving this goal. Venezuela's oil sector decline with exports down 20% in April 2025, emphasizes the urgency of regional cooperation. Shared energy initiatives could help. But opposition disunity hinders Venezuela's ability to lead, or participate effectively in integration efforts: stunting potential progress. Cuba's role in regional integration is highlighted in its diplomatic relations with Guyana since 1972.

Venezuela could learn from this using cultural ties to bridge disputes, but the government's focus on repression over diplomacy limits its capacity to engage constructively with neighbors. The potential for integration to address economic crisis exists, but political divisions remain a barrier. Venezuela's internal strife and external conflicts, like those with Guyana, must be resolved to realize a unified Latin American sphere: capable of tackling shared challenges like oil dependency. United States sanctions since 2019 have targeted Pdvsa to pressure the Venezuelan government, culminating in Chevron's exit on May 27th, 2025 as reported by Reuters on May 15th, 2025.

These measures aimed to weaken the government, but have significantly disrupted Venezuela's oil industry: reducing production and export capabilities. Secondary tariffs, including a 25% levy on Venezuelan oil buyers, were introduced in March 2025 per the White House. This severely reduced export volumes. The revenue loss limits Venezuela's ability to fund essential imports and services. The economic decline from reduced exports has deepened Venezuela's humanitarian crisis: with limited funds for food, medicine, and social programs. Inflation and poverty rates have soared, threatening social stability. The Caracas Chronicles on May 19, 2025 warned of potential gasoline shortages, exacerbating daily hardships for Venezuelans.

Even with sanctions, the United States imported 149,000 barrels per day from Venezuela the week of May 23rd, 2025, down from 250,000 barrels per day in January. This pre- Chevron exit flow underscores sanctions' partial effectiveness. Post May 27 cessation pushes Venezuela: toward China, Russia and Iran. Sanctions have driven Venezuela toward nonwestern partners, with China importing 428,000 barrels per day and Iran supplying diluent, as noted by Venezuela analysis on May 15th, 2025. This shift reduces United States influence as Venezuela pivots its allies who can navigate sanctions, reshaping its international alliances.

Public frustration criticizes both the regime and opposition for failing to address economic woes. The label of abstentionists as virtual terrorists highlights potential divisions which hinder effective responses to the crisis, caused by sanctions and severance exits. Sanctions have strengthened United States adversaries: like China and Russia who fill the void left by Western companies. The unintended consequence destabilizes Venezuela further, as the government leverages these partnerships to survive challenging United States foreign policy goals in the region.

Conoco Phillips registered a $10 billion arbitration award in Trinidad and Tobago on May 28th, 2025, targeting Pdvsa assets as reported by Stabroek News. This legal action stems from Venezuela's 2017 nationalization of Conoco's assets, posing a significant threat to Pdvsa's financial stability and ability to operate internationally. The award could lead to asset seizures, further straining Pdvsa's operations with exports already down 20% in April 2025. Losing key assets like tankers or overseas accounts would disrupt crude sales, exacerbating Venezuela's economic crisis and limiting funds for imports and debt repayment.

Diosdado Cabello's claim of thwarting 60 attacks on oil facilities presents a security challenge. The government alleges these attacks aimed to disrupt production, but the lack of evidence raises doubts, with many viewing it as a tactic to justify increased control. The attack claims are labeled as propaganda. Security threats, whether real or fabricated, disrupt Pdvsa's operations by creating uncertainty for workers and investors. The fear of sabotage, even if unfunded, deters foreign companies from engaging with Venezuela's oil sector. compounding the challenges posed by sanctions and Chevron's exit.

The combined legal and security challenges exacerbate Veneza's operational difficulties isolating Venezuela's oil industry. Further, Conoco's award threatens financial stability while security claims seen as propaganda undermine trust, making it harder for Pdvsa to sustain production and exports in a volatile environment. The Venezuelan diaspora, through organizations like Veppex play a significant role in advocating for a unified opposition against the Venezuelan government, claiming to represent millions of exiles. Veppex pushes for stronger resistance, demanding an end to negotiations with the government. Veppex criticized opposition leaders like Manuel Rosales for negotiating with Nicolas Maduro. Veppex argues that such talks legitimize a regime responsible for over 300 political prisoners and 150,000 deaths, undermining the opposition's credibility and moral stance against human rights abuses.

Proposals to revoke the nationality of exiles boycotting elections reflect tensions between the diaspora and domestic opposition. Arguments abound claiming that exiles who sabotage democratic participation hinder progress, and should face consequences. Abstentionists are labeled virtual terrorists as they discredit the opposition to avoid occupying seats in the National Assembly. This boycott, intended to delegitimize the government, is seen by some as a betrayal, weakening the opposition's ability to challenge Nicolas Maduro effectively from abroad. María Machado's role in opposition disunity is heavily criticized: with social media posts blaming her for the socialist landslide, in recent regional and national assembly elections. She is accused of deliberately destroying the opposition.

A sentiment is echoed by exiles and Venezuelan residents alike, who feel Machado's actions have empowered the government. The diaspora's push for accountability and unity highlights the broader struggle against the government's repression, by amplifying calls for a cohesive strategy. Exiles aim to influence domestic politics: but internal divisions and punitive proposals risk further fracturing the opposition's efforts to affect change. Opposition disunity with abstentionists and participationists clashing over election strategies weakens Venezuela's resistance to the government. Abstentionists boycott elections to deny legitimacy, while participationists seek to gain seats leading to conflicting approaches. Abstentionists are labeled virtual terrorists. They are accused of undermining the opposition, by avoiding national assembly seats and governorships.

Boycott, while symbolically powerful, prevents the opposition from building political power: allowing the government to dominate elections, as seen in the socialist landslide. Participationist candidates faced insults with social media posts, noting evidence of extremist approval for socialist gains. Hence they shout joy at socialism's victories, reflecting how opposition disunity enables the government to exploit divisions, and maintain control through electoral wins. Economically, this unity prevents effective responses to the crisis following Chevron's exit with exports down 20% in April.

The opposition's inability to present a united front hampers advocacy for policies that could mitigate economic hardship. Politically, the government exploits these divisions using repression and propaganda to maintain power. Diosdado Cabello's claims of thwarted attacks distract from economic failures, while opposition in fighting: as criticized by Veppex, allowing their government to suppress dissent without significant push back. A unified opposition strategy is crucial: to address both economic and political challenges. Without cohesion, the opposition cannot effectively counter the government's tactics or advocate for solutions to the oil industry decline, leaving Venezuelans vulnerable to ongoing crisis and authoritarian control. Venezuela's oil industry faces a steep decline with production and exports down 20% to 698,767 barrels per day in April 2025. However, post Chevron's exit.

Production has increased back to 1 million 7,200 barrels per day. Post Chevron's exit aging infrastructure underinvestment. PDVSA's inefficiencies compounded by sanctions create significant hurdles, making recovery a daunting task: without substantial operational and financial improvements. Partnerships with China, Russia and Iran offer potential for recovery, as these nations can provide technical support and investment. China's interest with CNPC discussions in 2025 could stabilize production: but sanctions and logistical challenges like securing deals limit the scale of such collaborations.

Domestic reforms are critical with PDVSA needing to address inefficiencies and invest in infrastructure. Modernizing upgraders and improving transparency could attract foreign partners, but the government's focus on control over reform, as seen in its repression tactics, hinders progress, delaying necessary changes. Political stability is essential for recovery. Yet opposition disunity and government repression create uncertainty. Abstentionists being labeled as virtual terrorists, reflects divisions that prevent cohesive policy, while government propaganda distracts from addressing the oil sector's structural issues. International support through regional integration could aid recovery.

Collaborative energy initiatives with Latin American neighbors like Guyana despite disputes might provide resources and markets. Venezuela's internal strife and external conflicts must be resolved to realize this potential. Long-term prospects remain uncertain, with recovery dependent on resolving sanctions, political crisis, and operational challenges. Without a concerted effort to address these issues, Venezuela's oil industry risks further decline, perpetuating economic hardship and limiting the country's ability to leverage its vast reserves for growth.

Chevron's exit on May 27th, 2025 has profoundly impacted Venezuela's oil industry, economy, and politics. The 20% export drop, PDVSA's takeover, and socioeconomic fallout in Zulia highlight the operational and human costs, while opposition disunity and government propaganda exacerbate the prices challenging Venezuela's stability. Geopolitical shifts have seen China, Russia, and Iran fill the vacuum left by Western companies with China importing 428,000 barrels per day and Iran supplying diluents. The spy bot, driven by United States sanctions, strengthens this nation's influence: countering United States interests and reshaping Latin America's energy landscape.

Social, economic, and political challenges including opposition disunity labeled virtual terrorism complicate recovery. The government's claims of thwarted attacks are seen as propaganda. distract from economic failures while divisions between abstentionists and participationists weaken resistance allowing the government to maintain power through repression. Regional integration offers a path forward with collaboration potentially stabilizing Venezuela's economy, learning from disputes with Cuba and Guyana could foster unity. But political divisions and the government's focus on control over diplomacy hinder progress, delaying economic revitalization.

United States sanctions have had unintended consequences pushing Venezuela toward adversaries, as warned by the Atlantic Council, while aimed at pressuring President Nicolas Maduro. They've strengthened China, Russia, and Iran, destabilizing the region and complicating United States foreign policy crisis and complicating United States foreign policy goals, highlighting the need for a re-evaluation of this approach. Venezuela's future requires a balanced strategy, addressing sanctions, political unity, and international cooperation. Supporting regional integration, resolving internal divisions, and investing in the oil sector are critical to recovery, ensuring Venezuela can leverage its resources to rebuild and achieve long-term stability amidst ongoing challenges.