Limited license is expected for Chevron

During his inauguration day press conference on January 20th, 2025, President Donald Trump declared, "Venezuela is tough." This statement captures the formidable challenges posed by: Venezuela's political turmoil, economic collapse, and humanitarian crisis under Nicolás Maduro's government. This situation is exacerbated by internal discord within the Trump administration, particularly between Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Presidential Envoy Richard Grenell, whose conflicting approaches to Venezuela policy have created uncertainty for United States companies like Chevron. with Chevron's Office of Foreign Assets Control OFAC license 41B set to expire on May 27th, 2025 and no extension confirmed. The administration's lack of cohesion threatens vital United States energy interests. 

We explore why Venezuela remains a complex challenge. We emphasize the critical role of the Treasury Department's authority over sanctions. We examine the Rubio Grenell tensions. We analyze why Trump tolerates these disputes, highlighting the political support for Grenell and Steve Witkoff underscoring the urgent need for a new Chevron license. We passionately urge President Trump and Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent to personally take charge, directing the issuance of a new OFAC license within a couple of days: to safeguard United States strategic and economic objectives, in a rapidly shifting global landscape. 

Why is Venezuela tough? Venezuela's complexity arises from its dramatic decline from a prosperous oil rich nation, to a state of profound crisis. Bolivarian revolution initiated in 1999 promised social equity, but evolved into economic mismanagement, corruption and authoritarianism. By 2013, when Nicolás Maduro assumed power, Venezuela faced hyperinflation: peaking at 1.7 million% in 2018. Acute shortages of food and medicine, and a humanitarian crisis was driven over 7.7 million citizens to emigrate. Maduro's government has maintained power through strategic alliances with China, Russia, and Iran: with worldwide economic and political support frustrating United States efforts to affect regime change.

These partnerships enable Venezuela to circumvent sanctions by redirecting oil exports, and securing alternative financing, sustaining the government grip despite international pressure. Economically, Venezuela's dependence on oil, historically over 90% of export revenue, has become a liability. The state-owned Petróleos the Venezuela PDVSA has seen production plummet: from 2.5 million barrels per day in 2013, to under 600,000 barrels per day in 2025: due to underinvestment and United States sanctions. Trump's acknowledgement of Venezuela's toughness reflects this intricate blend of political resilience, economic devastation, and strategic significance: demanding nuanced and decisive policy responses. 

The political landscape in Venezuela is deeply polarized, complicating United States policy objectives. The July 2024 presidential election was highly contentious, with international observers including the Carter Center and the opposition claiming that Edmundo Gonzalez won by a landslide However, the Venezuelan government and its institutions, including the Supreme Tribunal of Justice, maintain that Nicolás Maduro secured victory, asserting that the opposition failed to submit evidence to substantiate claims of electoral irregularities. This discrepancy underscores the profound lack of trust in Venezuela's electoral process, and the entrenched divide between Maduro's supporters and the opposition. The fragmentation of the opposition weakens United States backed efforts to challenge Maduro's authority.

This political stalemate, combined with Maduro's ability to leverage international alliances, makes Venezuela a formidable challenge for the Trump administration: requiring strategies that navigate competing narratives, while addressing the realities on the ground. United States sanctions intensified since 2017. They target Venezuela's oil sector to deprive government revenue, significantly impacting companies like Chevron. Chevron's history in Venezuela began in 1923 as the Venezuelan Gulf Oil Company, a subsidiary of Gulf Oil, during the presidency of Juan Vicente Gomez in Venezuela and Warren G. Harding in the United States: with Calvin Kulage assuming office later that year. Chevron's records confirm operations started with a superior oil well on August 31st, 1924. Gulf Oil merged with Standard Oil of California in 1984, forming Chevron Corporation, which retained its Venezuelan assets after earlier transitions, including Standard Oil's acquisition of Gulf Oil's interests in 1932. 

Chevron operates five joint ventures with PDVSA across 74,000 oil and gas acres. Petropiar with a 30% share processes extra heavy crude from Huyapari field in the Orinoco belt, producing 105,000 to 138,000 barrels per day of Hamaca crude. Petroboscán with a 39.2 share focuses on heavy crude from the Boscán field. Petroindependiente with a 25.2 share produces offshore crude from the LL652 field in Lake Maracaibo. Petrodelta with a 32% share operates onshore in the Urakoa Bombal and Chukita fields, and Petrozuata with an unknown minority share, historically targeted extra heavy crude but may be inactive. These ventures detailed on Chevron's website account for 25% of total Venezuela's oil production. 

Chevron relies on OFAC licenses to operate amidst sanctions. The current general license 41B set to expire on May 27th, 2025 permits Chevron to export 138,000 barrels per day to the United States. On May 22nd, 2025, Rubio confirmed the license would not be extended, contradicting Grenell's statement to news outlets and social media, that a 60-day extension was possible if negotiations progressed. This discord, rooted in OFAC authority under the Treasury Department, leaves Chevron facing an operational shutdown, asset seizure, or financial losses: unless a new license is issued within 4 days. The uncertainty threatens Chevron's annual contribution between 2.1 and 3.2 billion dollars to Venezuela's economy, and United States energy security, underscoring the critical need for immediate action.

The primary tension within the Trump administration's Venezuela policy lies between Marco Rubio and Richard Grenell, reflecting a clash between ideological rigidity and pragmatic diplomacy. Rubio features a history of opposing leftist regimes, advocating a maximum pressure strategy. As a senator, he shaped Trump's first term sanctions, and recognition of Juan Guaidó as interim president. Now, as Secretary of State, Rubio pushes for regime change, engaging opposition leaders like González and Machado. According to State Department records, his May 22nd, 2025 announcement against extending Chevron's license aligns with his belief that economic engagement strengthens Madura's government, a view supported by great old party figures like Rick Scott. However, Rubio's influence in sanctions is limited, as OFAC operates under the Treasury Department. 

In contrast, Richard Grenell, Trump's envoy for special missions, prioritizes dealmaking. His January 31st, 2025 meeting with Maduro secured the release of six American detaininees, and commitments for migrant deportations: demonstrating direct engagement. Grenell's suggestion of a Chevron license extension indicates he views Chevron's presence as a tool for advancing United States goals, such as migration agreements or countering China's influence. This approach has thrown criticism from Rubio's allies, who argue it risks legitimizing Maduro. Grenell's Caracas visit, timed before Rubio's Central America tour, was perceived as undermining Rubio's message: prompting GOP backlash and Rubio's clarification that the trip did not imply recognition of Maduro. The General license dispute epitomizes this divide, creating confusion for stakeholders. Former envoy Mauricio Claver Carone resigned from his Latin American Post due to policy disagreements with Rubio, highlighting Rubio's polarizing influence. 

While Rubio and Grenell clash, Rubio's functional relationship with Steve Witkoff, Trump's special envoy for the Middle East, and Russia Ukraine talks has yielded successes. In February 2025, Witkoff and Rubio met Russian officials in Riyad, advancing Ukraine discussions and securing the release of an American hostage. In April 2025, they collaborated in Paris with French President Emanuel Macron on an Ukraine ceasefire. In Iran, Witkoff led nuclear talks in Oman, with Rubio supporting a firm stance against uranium enrichment, aligning with Israel's concerns. Their efforts in Saudi Arabia and Oman facilitated a Gaza ceasefire in January 2025, demonstrating a cohesive approach, where Rubio's diplomatic weight complements Witkoff's deal making skills, contrasting with Rubio's tensions with Grenell. 

Why does Trump tolerate these quarrels? Trump's tolerance of the Rubio Grenell tensions is a calculated aspect of his leadership style, reflecting strategic calculations that balance competing priorities.It maximizes his administration's flexibility in addressing Venezuela's complex crisis. He encourages rivalry among advisors to test diverse strategies, ensuring multiple perspectives are explored before committing to a course of action. Rubio's hardline stance resonates powerfully with his antisocialist base, particularly Cuban American and Venezuelan voters in Florida, who view Maduro's government as a regional threat. These communities influence a key electoral state: they see Rubio's push for regime change as a moral and political imperative, aligning with Trump's broader narrative of confronting leftist regimes. 

Grenell's pragmatic deals, such as the detainees release and migration commitments secured in January 2025, deliver tangible wins: that align with Trump's dealmaking persona, appealing to supporters who prioritize visible outcomes over ideological purity. The successes enhance Trump's image as a leader capable of extracting concessions from adversaries, a critical asset in his domestic and international messaging. The contradictory signals from Rubio and Grenell create strategic ambiguity, keeping Maduro uncertain about United States intentions, and potentially yielding concessions such as further migration agreements or electoral reforms. 

This approach mirrors Trump historical use of unpredictability in foreign policy, as seen in his negotiations with North Korea and Iran during his first term: where mixed messages pressured adversaries into dialogue. However, this strategy risks confusion and inefficiency, as evidenced by the uncertainty surrounding Chevron's license: which has frustrated stakeholders and investors. The lack of clarity has led to market volatility, with oil prices fluctuating in anticipation of Chevron's potential withdrawal. Trump's willingness to tolerate these disputes suggests confidence that the benefits of competition, diverse ideas, political appeal to varied constituencies, and diplomatic leverage: outweigh the drawbacks in the short term. 

The success of Steve Witkoff, praised by Russian and Iranian leaders for his negotiation skills, further supports Trump's strategy of fostering diverse approaches. Witkoff's ability to secure outcomes like the Gaza ceasefire and the hostage release demonstrates that internal competition can yield results when channeled effectively, providing a model for resolving the Chevron crisis through decisive leadership. Trump's tolerance also reflects his understanding of Venezuela's strategic importance. The country's vast oil reserves, estimated at 303 billion barrels by the United States Energy Information Administration, make it a critical player in global energy markets. Allowing internal debates to play out ensures that all options: hardline pressure versus pragmatic engagement, are vetted enabling Trump to make an informed decision, that aligns with his America first agenda. 

The urgency of the Chevron license expiration demands that Trump moves beyond tolerance to action, personally directing a resolution to prevent strategic losses to competitors like China, which is poised to expand its influence in Venezuela's oil sector: as reported by Bloomberg. Chevron's operations are critical to both Venezuela's oil production and United States energy markets, facing an existential threat without a new OFAC license by May 27th, 2025. Chevron's exports of 138,000 barrels per day stabilize United States markets: reducing dependence on adversarial suppliers like Russia or Iran, as emphasized in analysis of United States Venezuela relations. This supply is particularly vital for United States refineries, which are optimized for Venezuela's heavy crude, ensuring stable fuel prices for American consumers. 

Chevron's presence provides significant diplomatic leverage, as demonstrated in 2023 negotiations where sanctions relief facilitated dialogue with Maduro's government, leading to commitments on migration and the Chinese releases. Chevron's investments also support jobs and infrastructure in Venezuela, mitigating the humanitarian crisis and reducing migration pressures on the United States border, a key concern given the 7.7 million Venezuelans who have fled. These economic contributions, estimated between 2.1 and 3.2 billion dollars annually underscore Chevron's role in stabilizing Venezuela's economy, which in turn supports United States regional security objectives: by curbing the exodus of refugees. 

Rubio's opposition to extending the license, based on his belief that it sustains Maduro's government lacks direct authority as OFAC operates under the Treasury Department, independent of the State Department. His influence, while significant among Republican GOP hawks, cannot override Treasury decisions, providing a critical opportunity for action. The revocation of Chevron's license in March 2025 announced by Trump on February 26th, 2025 via Truth Social, cited Maduro's failure to implement electoral reforms, and expedite migrant returns. However, the absence of a new license threatens to exacerbate Venezuela's economic woes, potentially driving production below the 742,000 barrels per day reported in 2024. This would empower competitors like China, which is actively seeking to increase its oil purchases from Venezuela, thereby strengthening the country's alliances with U.S. adversarial powers. 

The urgency of the situation cannot be overstated. President Trump must personally direct Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent to issue a new OFAC license within the next few days, leveraging his authority to align the administration's policy with the America's energy and security interests. Bessent's financial expertise, demonstrated in his sanctions against the Sinaloa cartel as announced on March 31st, 2025, positions him to craft a license that balances pressure on Maduro with the need to maintain United States influence. A tailored license allowing limited operations would preserve Chevron's investments, estimated at $3 billion in outstanding debt, and ensure continued access to Venezuela's oil reserves. Failure to act risks not only economic losses but also a strategic setback: as China and Iran could fill the void left by Chevron's withdrawal, undermining United States leverage in the Western Hemisphere.

Trump's leadership combined with Bessent's pragmatic approach is essential to transform this crisis into an opportunity for American dominance, in global energy markets. President Trump's personal intervention is indispensable to resolve Chevron's dilemma and assert United States leadership in this pivotal moment. As the commander-in-chief, Trump possesses unparalleled authority to unify his administration's desperate factions: and direct policy with clarity, cutting through the Rubio Grenell impasse that has paralyzed Venezuela policy. His recognition that Venezuela is tough positions him uniquely to grasp the high stakes. Allowing Chevron's license to expire risks ceding Venezuela's vast oil reserves to competitors like China, which is poised to expand its influence. This would undermine United States energy security, increase fuel prices for American consumers, and embolden Venezuela's alliances with adversarial powers: threatening hemispheric stability. 

Trump's deal making skills, homed through decades of high stakes negotiations, equips him to recognize Chevron's presence as a critical bargaining chip: for diplomatic concessions such as migration agreements or detainee releases, which have been priorities in his second term, as evidenced by Grenell's January 2025 achievements, Trump's leadership style, which thrives on bold and decisive action, is tailor made for this crisis. His first term demonstrated a willingness to override internal dissent to achieve strategic goals: as seen in his direct engagement with North Korea's Kim Jong-un and the Abraham Accords. 

The Chevron license issue offers a similar opportunity to project strength: both domestically and internationally, by ensuring United States companies maintain a foothold in Venezuela's oil sector. By personally directing Bessent to issue a new license, Trump can rally his administration around a pragmatic solution: that balances pressure on Venezuela with America's long-term interests. This move would resonate with his America first agenda, prioritizing United States economic security over ideological battles, and appeal to his base by demonstrating toughness against global rivals like China and Iran. The urgency of the May 27th deadline demands that Trump acts swiftly, leveraging his authority to prevent a strategic misstep that could haunt his administration's legacy. 

The broader geopolitical context amplifies the need for Trump's involvement. Venezuela's alliances with Russia, China, and Iran position it as a flash point in the great power competition. Allowing Chevron to withdraw would signal weakness, inviting further encroachment by adversaries in the Western Hemisphere. Trump's personal commitment to countering China's global influence, articulated in his economic vision at the Economic Club of New York, as reported by the Treasury Department, underscores the necessity of maintaining United States leverage in Venezuela. By taking charge, Trump can ensure that the United States remains a dominant player in global energy markets, securing economic benefits for Americans and reinforcing his administration's narrative of strength and prosperity.

Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessett stands at the forefront of this urgent decision, with the authority and expertise to issue a new OFAC license by May 27th, 2025. Bessent's background as a financial strategist, renowned for his pragmatic approach to economic challenges, positions him as the ideal leader to navigate this crisis. His recent actions: such as sanctioning financeers of the Stinaloa cartel on March 31st, 2025 demonstrates his ability to wield Treasury's tools, to advance United States interests. The Treasury Department's control over OFAC grants Bessent the power to act independently of Rubio's ideological objections, ensuring that United States economic and strategic priorities prevail. 

The clock is ticking with only a couple of days remaining, to prevent Chevron's operational shutdown: which would disrupt United States energy supplies and seed market share to adversaries. Bessent must personally take charge, leveraging his understanding of global markets to recognize that Chevron's 138,000 barrels per day are vital to stabilizing oil prices. This alignment with Witkoff's successful diplomacy, praised by global leaders for its sensitivity, reinforces the need for a license that maintains United States influence in Venezuela. A new license would preserve Chevron's investments estimated at three billion dollars in outstanding debt, and ensure continued access to Venezuela's oil reserves: which are critical for United States refineries. 

Bessent's remarks at the Milan Institute Global Conference on May 9th, 2025 emphasized his commitment to President Trump's vision of economic prosperity, highlighting the need for bold actions to counter global competitors, issuing a new license align with his vision, safeguarding the United States dollars integrity, and supporting American energy security. The consequences of inaction are dire. Without a license, Chevron's withdrawal would exacerbate Venezuela's economic crisis, potentially driving migration surges that strain United States border resources: a priority for Trump's administration. It would also empower China, Russia, and Iran, which are eager to expand their influence in Venezuela's oil sector. Bessent's decisive action will signal to the international community that the United States remains a dominant player in global energy, capable of outmaneuvering competitors. 

By crafting a license that allows limited operations, Bessent can balance the need to pressure Venezuela with the imperative to maintain United States leverage. ensuring that America's economic and security interests are protected in this high stakes arena. Chevron's potential exit from Venezuela could have far reaching ripple effects that reshape global dynamics in unexpected ways. For instance, a United States withdrawal might inadvertently accelerate China's influence in Latin America, as Beijing seeks to fill the energy vacuum left by American companies. This could embolden China's belt and road initiative, extending its reach into the Western Hemisphere, and challenging United States dominance in the region. Such a shift might also strain United States alliances with Latin American countries, worried of China's growing presence, potentially forcing them to navigate a delicate balance between Washington and Beijing. 

Instability in Venezuela's oil sector could reverberate through global energy markets, leading to price volatility that impacts not only the United States but also Europe and Asia. This unpredictability might compel energy dependent nations to seek alternative suppliers, inadvertently strengthening Russia's hand in the global oil trade, a development with profound implications for energy security and geopolitical alignments. On the humanitarian front, Chevron's departure could deepen Venezuela's economic despair, accelerating migration flows that strain United States border resources and inflame domestic political tensions. This in turn might force the United States to recalibrate its foreign policy priorities, diverting attention from other global hotspots. These broader, less obvious consequences underscore the urgency of issuing a new OFAC license. 

By acting decisively, Trump and Bessent can not only safeguard immediate United States interests, but also preempt a cascade of unintended global shifts. The decision on Chevron's license will profoundly shape United States Venezuela relations, the global energy markets, and the Trump administration's internal dynamics. Issuing a new license could open pathways for renewed dialogue with Maduro's government, fostering progress on critical issues like migration and humanitarian aid, which are paramount given Venezuela's crisis. Conversely, allowing the license to expire would strengthen Venezuela's ties with China and Iran as evidenced by Venezuela's recent appeals for increased Chinese oil purchases, potentially entrenching adversarial influence in the Western Hemisphere in the global energy market. Chevron's withdrawal could like would likely trigger oil price spikes, benefiting rival producers like Russia while straining United States consumers. 

A new license would stabilize supply chains, ensuring United States refineries access Venezuela's heavy crude within the administration. A Bessent led decision would signal a shift toward pragmatism, reinforcing the influence of diplomats like Witkoff and setting a precedent for navigating other global challenges. Trump's declaration that Venezuela is tough encapsulates a crisis demanding bold and pragmatic action. The Rubio Grenell quarrel undermines policy coherence, as illustrated by the Chevron license dispute. Trump's tolerance of distension leverages competition, but risks confusion. While Grenell enjoys support for his diplomatic achievements, Witkoff's successes in Russia and Iran highlights the potential for collaboration with Rubio. Chevron's Venezuelan operations future hinges on a new OFAC license, and President Trump and Secretary Scott Bessent must personally take charge to issue it by May 27th, 20125. This urgent action, grounded in the Treasury's authority, will safeguard United States energy security, maintain diplomatic leverage, and counter the growing influence of adversaries like China and Iran. By acting decisively, Trump and Bessent can transform the tough challenge of Venezuela into an opportunity to assert American leadership: ensuring strategic and economic interests prevail.